Saturday, September 8, 2012

Theories on Network Value


Reed's Law of the Pack states:
the utility of large networks, particularly social networks, can scale exponentially with the size of the network.  
The reason for this is that the number of possible sub-groups of network participants is 2N − N − 1, where N is the number of participants. This grows much more rapidly than either
  • the number of participants, N, or
  • the number of possible pair connections, N(N − 1)/2 (which follows Metcalfe's law).
...so that even if the utility of groups available to be joined is very small on a peer-group basis, eventually the network effect of potential group membership can dominate the overall economics of the system.
So its a refined version of Metcalf's law, that highlights the value of subgroups.

But OTOH, Andrew Odlyzko disagrees, and claims network value grows like a logarithmic Meltcalf Law:
The fundamental flaw underlying both Metcalfe's and Reed's laws is in the assignment of equal value to all connections or all groups. 
Lots more on Value Networks at wikipedia.

A few notes on gamification






Seminal 1980 paper from Xerox PARC: What Makes Things Fun to Learn?, Thomas Malone
  • p49:  Theory of Intrinsically motivating instruction
  • p65: Heuristics for designing instructional computer games
Resources:
Key People:
  • Gabe Zichermann
  • Kevin Werbach
  • Thomas Malone
Commercial Platforms:

Trends in Gartner Hype Cycles

Interesting annual graph showing what Gartner Group thinks are important new technologies, and how far away from "mainstream" adoption.  Latest plus a few previous years for comparison.

2012:


2011:


2010:

2009:


2008:


More historical charts here:  http://adverlab.blogspot.ca/2008/08/media-history-through-gartner-hype.html